"The decisions we make, the conclusions we reach, and the explanations we offer are usually based on our judgments of the likelihood of uncertain events..."
This assumption, being generous call it even a hypothesis, going in, is, of course, utterly untrue of the decisions, conclusions, or explanations of most people. (Who knows or cares how many "most' is, either real numbers or statistics, in the real world: it's a really big number.)
The assumption itself fails to pass my smell test...
The assumption itself fails to pass my smell test...
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