As I recall, his thesis was based in part on an assumption that Germany, Russia, and Japan might combine, say all three together, which would have been an insuperable combination.
That was the main explanation, aside from temporary preparedness issues, for why he called it a defensive war.
Given the history of each with the other two, such a combination seems to have been highly unlikely, in fact impossible.
Japan and Russia had fought the War in 1905. They later colluded in a nonaggression pact designed to allow the Japanese to attack the Pacific and the US, without worrying for the moment about their back. But this was a temporary expedient.
Germany's lebensraum was considered to be in the East, where Hitler had almost as little respect for Russians, especially Bolsheviks, as for Jews.
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