Saturday, August 21, 2010
RE PROFESSOR BOBBITT SHIELD OF ACHILLES POSSIBLE WORLDS
I want to say a few words, at some point, here and there about what Professor Bobbitt prognosticated, 8 or 9 years ago now, concerning possible worlds scenarios.
Private sector companies allegedly do good uncertainty work, better than government. That is a given I think, for Western democracies, but I would point out, most Western firms, not really true (their perennially short time horizons).
Witness also the recent disclosure, as just another example, that HP has cut most of its remaining R & D.
See some reasons why, at eg Bobbitt Shield, p. 725, 'Technology'; esp. paragraph beginning "The capability..."; and the article NYT Aug 22, 2010, today re South China athletic shoe knock off factories.
I am far from sure that places like Japan have not been doing something even more sophisticated re scenario planning for a long time now; perhaps I give them too much credit. No one can predict what actually will occur.
The BP situation may or may not be a good example of what Professor Bobbitt was referring to; certainly they found lax federal regulation, going in, and no doubt factored that into their cost equations, going forward, regarding whether certain failsafe measures were necessary.
I want to refer, in a more general sense, to some of the points made, regarding certain aspects of the analysis, re the Meadow, the Park, and the Garden, the drivers, etc., etc.
Private sector companies allegedly do good uncertainty work, better than government. That is a given I think, for Western democracies, but I would point out, most Western firms, not really true (their perennially short time horizons).
Witness also the recent disclosure, as just another example, that HP has cut most of its remaining R & D.
See some reasons why, at eg Bobbitt Shield, p. 725, 'Technology'; esp. paragraph beginning "The capability..."; and the article NYT Aug 22, 2010, today re South China athletic shoe knock off factories.
I am far from sure that places like Japan have not been doing something even more sophisticated re scenario planning for a long time now; perhaps I give them too much credit. No one can predict what actually will occur.
The BP situation may or may not be a good example of what Professor Bobbitt was referring to; certainly they found lax federal regulation, going in, and no doubt factored that into their cost equations, going forward, regarding whether certain failsafe measures were necessary.
I want to refer, in a more general sense, to some of the points made, regarding certain aspects of the analysis, re the Meadow, the Park, and the Garden, the drivers, etc., etc.
No comments:
Post a Comment